When it comes to high-pressure jobs in sport, being an All Black coach ranks near the top. New Zealand’s national rugby team has entrenched a legacy as a dominant force in the game, and the expectations and standards for any All Blacks head coach are exceptionally high, to say the least.
It was therefore only mildly surprising that New Zealand Rugby (NZR) recently parted ways with Scott Robertson, having appointed the Crusaders coach to a 4-year contract that was meant to expire after the conclusion of the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
Let’s break down why Robertson was fired, and who the next coach of the Springboks' greatest rival is likely to be:
Why was Robertson Fired?
While Robertson’s winning percentage record of 74% is stronger than most international coaches, All Blacks coaches aren’t judged in isolation; they are judged against their own incredible record —and that is a brutal measuring stick. The All Blacks’ historical winning percentage (hovering around 75–80% across more than a century) has created an expectation unlike any other in international rugby.
Big losses to South Africa (a record 43-10 loss) and to England led many to argue that Robertson didn’t have what it takes to overcome top-tier rivals, underpinned by a belief that the All Blacks had lost the ruthless edge that once defined New Zealand rugby.
Living in the Past?
Previous coaches such as Graham Henry and Steve Hansen operated in an era when New Zealand were clear tactical and athletic frontrunners. That landscape no longer exists.
Realistically, the All Blacks won’t return to their previous dominance on a sustained basis. International rugby has improved dramatically, and top-tier teams such as France, Ireland, South Africa, England, and even Argentina now produce deeper talent pools, smarter coaching structures, and relentless physicality.
The margins are smaller, and dominance is harder to sustain. Expecting the next All Blacks coach to replicate the win rates of the past may be unrealistic—but that doesn’t mean the expectation will disappear.
What are the Appointment Criteria?
New Zealand Rugby has already confirmed that it will prioritise New Zealand-based coaches who already have proven international head coaching experience, citing the need for a coach who can “hit the ground running” midway through a World Cup cycle.
This narrowed focus rules out potential options such as current Springbok assistant coach, Tony Brown, a fact that will put Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus at ease.
Appointment Timeline & Panel
NZR is operating with "urgency and care," aiming to have a coach in place before the Super Rugby Pacific season kicks off on 14 February 2026. The five-person appointment panel includes:
- David Kirk (NZR Chairman)
- Keven Mealamu (Former All Black)
- Don Tricker (Former NZR Head of High Performance)
- Steve Lancaster (Acting NZR CEO)
- One additional former All Black (yet to be named)
The incoming coach will be contracted through the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
Leading Contenders
Jamie Joseph
Former All Black Jamie Joseph, who is currently the head coach of the Highlanders and the All Blacks XV, is the frontrunner to replace Robertson, having successfully coached Japan (2016–2023) to their first World Cup quarterfinal. Joseph is the favourite due to his extensive international experience and his old-school approach to discipline and tactical flexibility. However, questions remain about translating that success to a talent-rich All Blacks environment.
Clayton McMillan
Born in Australia but raised in New Zealand, McMillan is the current head coach of Munster and previously served as the interim head coach of the Chiefs in Super Rugby.
Dave Rennie
The former Wallabies and Chiefs coach has a proven track record in Super Rugby and at Test level (coaching the Wallabies), which makes him a "safe" choice for NZR. However, the bookies have placed him low in the pecking order, as he is only likely to feature if Joseph is unavailable.
Candidates Ruled Out
Several high-profile coaches have recently confirmed they are not available for the role. including:
- Joe Schmidt: The current Wallabies coach (who is a New Zealander) has ruled himself out, stating he will honour his commitment to Australian rugby through the 2027 World Cup.
- Vern Cotter: Despite being a strong candidate, the Blues coach has ruled himself out after signing a deal to coach the Queensland Reds starting in 2027.
- Tony Brown: Often linked as an assistant to Jamie Joseph, Brown remains committed to his contract as the Springboks attack coach through 2027.
Betting Odds
- Jamie Joseph: 4/7
- Clayton McMillan: 5/1
- Joe Schmidt: 7/1 (ruled out already)
- Wayne Smith: 8/1
- Vern Cotter: 10/1 (ruled out already)
- Chris Boyd: 12/1
- Ian Foster: 12/1
- Dave Rennie: 14/1
- Eddie Jones: 14/1
Get Your Game On
From All Blacks matches to the appointment of All Blacks coaches, you can bet on a range of sports events at www.gbets.co.za. Get your Game On and check it out!